Two Point Conversion #2: Dallas Cowboys

In honor of the NFL season beginning this Thursday, all TPC questions this week will be football-related. In addition, be on the lookout for feature columns by Luke, Brian, and a developing cast of others. Today we tackle a question of particular local interest. Read on, faithful readers.



COWBOY UP, BITCHES


Dan F. from Shelby, PA:
I laid down a football futures bet at 11:1 on the Cowboys to win it all. Do they have a legitimate shot at winning the super bowl this year?



LUKE:

I hate to break it to you, Dan, but I think you got fleeced. The Cowboys have looked great in the preseason, but preseason play is rarely an indication of regular season glory. Teams who dominate the preseason are generally teams who are entertaining competition for a variety of starting spots, and the Cowboys have too many questions to maintain their preseason clip against regular-season opponents.

Let’s start with the schedule. Every year, one or two strong divisions get a bad shake and have to play each other. This year, those divisions are the NFC East and AFC South. The NFC East is arguably the most difficult division in the NFL; couple that with the 4 games against the AFC South, a deceptively strong division with the Colts and Jaguars coming off double-digit win seasons, and the potential for the NFC wild card to come out of the East doesn’t look good. The Eagles may not pose much of a challenge, but Washington is the early favorite, and the Giants have all the pieces in place to make a strong run at a division title.

Looking to the roster, the Cowboys lack depth at nearly every important position. An area of significant concern seems to be the offensive line, where 31-year old Flozell Adams is the de facto starter at left tackle over rookie 7th-round pick Pat McQuistan, and Marc Colombo and Rob Petitti are locked up in a tight competition for who can lose the starting right tackle job first. With those two tackle situations, it’s nearly a given that the statuesque Drew Bledsoe is going to take a hit or two this season. The last time he went down mid-season, his team won the Super Bowl, but Tony Romo is no Tom Brady. It goes without saying that any team needs a little luck to win a title, but the Cowboys must avoid injuries across the board to survive. Any injury at a key position sinks the ‘Boys for the season.

11:1 isn’t terrible odds for any legitimate title contender, Dan, but the Cowboys just aren’t a contender this season. They need to get younger and deeper at important positions, and even if Parcells stays after this season, they’re still a year away.




BRIAN:

Dan, you sir, are correct. You placed your money in the right place. Last year the Cowboys were not even in talks of becoming Super Bowl contenders, but before long the Boys could have punched their own ticket to the playoffs. Their demise last year came from sloppy play when it mattered most, i.e. the Thanksgiving Day game against Denver. Playing under Parcells’s system another year can only improve on last year’s underachieving performances.

While under the Parcells regime, the Cowboys have improved at every position. From end to end they have shown improvement, with notable advancements at quarterback, wide receiver, running back, place kicker, secondary, and Coach Parcells’s breast size. The addition of T.O. at wideout should open up the field for Terry Glenn, and even moreso for Bledsoe favorite Jason Witten. Whether T.O. gets solid playing time as the number one receiver, or as a number three guy, he opens up the offense for every other player to excel. In addition, he will keep the pressure of the main weakness of this team, the offensive line, by keeping the defense from lining up eight men in the box.

As for concern about Drew Bledsoe at quarterback, I think those rumors can be put to rest. Citing his last two preseason performances where he led the Boys’ offense without issue, and his own lack of knowledge of the supposed ‘QB controversy,’ I wouldn’t put too much stock into quarterback issues in Dallas.

Looking to the schedule, I don’t see as much concern as Luke does. While the Cowboys do draw some of the better teams in the AFC South, they should be able to handle a beatable Jacksonville team, and they spot-up to Indy at home. As far as the NFC East goes, the division looks like it usually does, like a bag of wet fire works. Some teams could be highly explosive, while others could just be duds. Washington looks great on paper, but has no real solid quarterback nor running back if Portis stays injured. New York looks to make a run for the title, but seems as aimless an Eli Manning throw on third and short. Philly is…well, who knows what they are going to do, but when you add Donte’ Stallworth to your plans, its safe to say that things are not going entirely well.

Every year six teams return to the playoffs, and six fall, offering an opportunity to an up and coming team. Dallas seems poised to make their run. All in all, it will take Dallas getting off to a strong start to win this division, but based on growth from last year, improvements on offense, and their vastly underrated defense, Dallas seems at least a contender to take the NFC crown.